Bardonomics

Image: Wikimedia Commons Modi has “robbed India of its economic prowess,” writes Rahul Gandhi, leader of the opposition Indian National Congress, in the Financial Times. Prime Minister Narendra Modi does not much care for such comments. He does not much have to: his party maintains firm control of India’s lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha, as well as a commanding majority in state legislatures. Mr. Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stormed to power on a promise to galvanise India’s economy with a series of wide-ranging reforms. The two most controversial actions were demonetisation and the institution of a nationwide Goods and Services Tax (GST). This article will analyse the controversy surrounding those reforms, and will also examine a few other key reforms. Demonetisation, Mr. Modi’s dead-of-night decision to take high denomination notes out of circulation, has unexpectedly become a central political pillar of his economic policy. The government’s objectiv

Photo: SCMP Optimism flows freely through the markets today. Asset prices are at record highs: investors are happier than ever to throw money at barely profitable technology companies, debt issuances from dubious companies and volatile governments, and anything blockchain related—from Bitcoin to Ethereum to Insanecoin, which does actually exist.     Most observers think that the coin mania is a bubble waiting to burst. But bears have been calling the whole market a bubble for a while, predicting an end to the years-long economic recovery and stock market boom. The old joke goes that economists have called seven of the last two recessions. It still rings true. Doomsayers have been convinced of a market crash since the post-recession recovery had barely gotten on its legs. But with things as they are today, are we on a path toward crisis?   I will not engage in the perilous business of trying to predict when the next economic downturn or market tumble will occur. Any such p

Photo: Reuters/SCMP It was a pivotal moment in Myanmar’s history, and one that was watched with full hearts across the globe. On November 13, 2010 democracy and human rights activist Aung San Suu Kyi was released after years under house arrest. Her political party, the Nation League for Democracy, won a resounding majority in legislative by-elections in 2012, and eventually came to power in 2015. Her release and subsequent election were highlights in the wave of democratic reforms carried about by Myanmar’s junta, which had imposed on the country a repressive, authoritarian regime.   To the people of Myanmar, and to observers around the world, it appeared that these reforms indicated the inception of genuine, lasting democracy and economic growth in the country. The unforgiving march of reality has tempered the early idealism that surrounded outside observers’ impressions of the country. Myanmar remains in a promising condition, but the country is fraught with potentially des