Statistical Endeavors

On Myanmar

This is adapted from a paper I wrote for my Comparative Politics class at Harvard . A Friendless People Thousands have been killed. Hundreds of thousands have fled. They are a people without a home, much less a state. Such is the plight of the Rohingya, whom a UN spokesperson once called the most friendless people in the world. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has called the situation a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing” (“UN”). This latest wave of state-sponsored violence follows a series of attacks by militants—a small insurgent group, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)—in August on Myanmarese military outposts. The brutal military crackdown is ostensibly targeted at insurgents. Yet, it is unmistakably civilians who are bearing the brunt of the violence, with the UN High Commissioner calling the response “clearly disproportionate” and “without regard for basic principles of international law” (“UN”). The approach of ethnic institutionalism has

The Tax Reform India Needs

Image: Tizi A version of this article also appeared in the South China Morning Post's Young Post on Thursday, May 5. http://yp.scmp.com/news/features/article/103398/india%E2%80%99s-economy-taking-right-steps-goods-and-service-tax India’s current prime minister, Narendra Modi, was elected in 2014 on his economic credentials and the promise that he would bring to the nation the same prosperity he brought, as chief minister, to his home state of Gujarat. The keystone of Modi’s economic policy is a nationwide goods-and-service tax (GST), intended to streamline the myriad state and central-government levies currently encumbering business in the country. Under the prevailing tax regime, multiple layers of tax are imposed on the same good, and interstate trade is complicated by varying tax rates between states. Transporting goods across state borders can entail long waiting times to resolve tax matters, and the plethora of obscure charges leaves ample room for co

Where Lurks the Next Crisis?

Photo: SCMP Optimism flows freely through the markets today. Asset prices are at record highs: investors are happier than ever to throw money at barely profitable technology companies, debt issuances from dubious companies and volatile governments, and anything blockchain related—from Bitcoin to Ethereum to Insanecoin, which does actually exist. Most observers think that the coin mania is a bubble waiting to burst. But bears have been calling the whole market a bubble for a while, predicting an end to the years-long economic recovery and stock market boom. The old joke goes that economists have called seven of the last two recessions. It still rings true. Doomsayers have been convinced of a market crash since the post-recession recovery had barely gotten on its legs. But with things as they are today, are we on a path toward crisis? I will not engage in the perilous business of trying to predict when the next economic downturn or market tumble will occur. Any such p

Bardonomics

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