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A World Without Work

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In 1930, famed economist and philosopher John Maynard Keynes wrote that by the time of his “grandchildren’s generation,” people in the developed world would be working no more than 15 hours a week. 

Keynes predicted that rapid advances in technology would lead to high levels of productivity and efficiency. The amount of human labor required to produce necessary goods and services would thus be greatly reduced. 

He envisioned a world in which, instead of being occupied with dreary work, humans would seek fulfillment through exploring the arts and pursuing creative endeavors. Keynes was optimistic about the future, but the proposition of advanced technology also worried him. 

Keynes’ concern was that increasingly productive technology would lead to what he called “technological unemployment.” With machines allowing fewer humans to produce more, it followed that overall employment would drop. 

Such concerns have resonated for centuries. Every revolution in technological capability, the Industrial Revolution being an example, has led to fears about mass joblessness and poverty. 

Advances in technology have so far increased human productivity and standards of living largely without a corresponding disemployment effect. On the contrary, technology has enabled the economy to create greater opportunities for employment. 

Many economists believe this effect may no longer continue. The current wave of technological progress involves advanced machine learning; tomorrow’s artificial intelligence will have the intellectual and creative ability once considered the sole domain of humans.

It is thought that a range of white collar careers, including those in economics, medicine, and law, are in danger. Jobs requiring human interaction will be more resistant to a takeover by robots; our emotional depth is still far from being replicated. 

Keynes’ prophecy may be fulfilled, albeit a little late, and a large number of people could indeed find themselves working much less. It is probable that quality of life will rise with better technology, but the reduction in employment may also herald an era of unprecedented inequality. The benefits of economic growth will overwhelmingly accrue to the privileged few who own productive technological capital. 

This concern has been extensively documented recently, with a number of potential policy measures proposed to ensure sufficient living conditions for all. Among these are the guaranteed minimum income, which was discussed in an earlier article. 

Well-designed policy, although difficult to implement, should be effective in maintaining satisfactory standards of life for those who those who find themselves out of work due to technology. More worrying are the studies which find that employment itself is an integral part of human fulfillment. 

A version of this article also appeared in the South China Morning Post's Young Post on Thursday, June 16. http://yp.scmp.com/over-to-you/columns/article/103688/economically-are-technological-advances-our-friend-enemy-or


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